Welcome to this Daily Fantasy Sports advice page – the place to be if you are new to the world of DFS and would like to get daily advice and answers to your questions, as well as the best daily advice. These pieces of advice include both daily fantasy football advice and tips applicable to other types of sports, too. We will start with answering a couple of frequently asked questions regarding legality and winnings, after which we will provide you with valuable information you can use when you building your strategy. Our goal was to build the best daily advice page for everyone.
We will start our article with a short overview. The Daily Fantasy Sports industry is worth 3-4$ Billion Dollars. Its huge share and importance in the gaming market have made it possible to play Fantasy Sports on a daily basis.
In fact, DFS is considered to be an amazingly fast growing industry with potential that we can hardly estimate or even imagine. Not only are players capable of drafting as many teams as they would like in any sport, but it is also very convenient that these teams compete for just one day or one week.
When we talk about the advantages of the way Daily Fantasy Sports are structured, we need to mention the fact that players are free to make a fantasy draft or salary cap league on a daily basis without having to commit for a whole season. At the same time, they have more opportunities as far as exploiting their edge against weaker opponents is concerned, which can result in making a lot more money. In addition to that being able to choose from a wide range of draft types practically guarantees that any needs and expectations can be met. Later in this daily fantasy advice page, we will dive into more details.
What you need to do to get started, is signing up with some of the Daily Fantasy sites. As soon as you are done with the registration, you will come across multiple Daily Fantasy leagues – NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL. These are the most common variations. There are sites that provide you with the opportunity to also play Daily Fantasy Golf, Daily Fantasy NASCAR, Daily Fantasy NCAA Basketball, and Daily Fantasy NCAA Football.
Legality And Winnings
As we promised earlier on this page, it is time to answer two of the most burning questions that are frequently posed by newcomers. Our daily fantasy sports advice will focus on questions about legality. The first one relates to whether playing Daily Fantasy Sports is legal or not. This information is also a valuable daily fantasy football advice for all players.
It is completely comprehensive why legality is considered to be such an important issue when it comes to games. In the case of Daily Fantasy Sports, we can assure you that playing is legal in most of the states in the USA. The main reason for this has to do with the fact that unlike poker, playing Fantasy Sports is considered to require a specific skill set. This is how Fantasy Sports became excluded from the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). There are no other differences between the ruled for daily fantasy sports and those for season long games apart from the smaller duration of the first ones. Regarding banking, keep in mind that most sites accept credit cards and PayPal as far as deposits are concerned. When it comes to withdrawing, also in this case cards should be a nice way to receive your winnings.
Another interesting point when it comes to advice refers to the amount of money you can win when playing Daily Fantasy Sports. To put it simply, you can end up winning a lot. Although the Daily Fantasy Sports industry is still new young and full of untapped potential in comparison to the $4 Billion Season-Long Fantasy Sports industry, we need to mention that there are users like Kaiser Roll who have already managed to win $55,412 in a single sports season. What is more, having in mind how fast the market and the community grow, it would be no wonder if the number of such winners increases dramatically.
Useful Daily Fantasy Sports Advice
Whether you are new to Daily Fantasy Sports or not, the advice listed in this section can turn out to be an extremely useful source of information and guidance in the process of playing. Therefore, we recommend that you pay extra attention and read them from the beginning till the end. You will not regret it! Here you can find some of the best daily fantasy advice, everything is covered: why, how and what to research in advance, how to make the most out of randomness, how to make projections and so much more. Fans of football should also read carefully because we will also mention some fantasy football advice.
1. Do not underestimate the power of research
One of the most important advice is that to become good at playing Daily Fantasy Sports, you will need to develop a specific skill set, which requires creating and putting in practice successful strategy. If you are determined to succeed, make sure you devote some time to researching the following variables: injuries and transactions, the sites, your opponent, the weather and the prize pool value. All of the listed above can play a significant role. And if you ask us, doing your research right is the best advice we can give.
Why research injuries and transactions, one may ask. Well, whether you are aware of it or not, they are considered to have a strong influence on the playing strategy. The reason for that has to do with the fact that in such situation it is a player with a lower salary who jumps into starter’s minutes for a limited period, which is extremely valuable for him. For example, Jamaal Charles replaced Lary Johnson as a starting Running Back for the Kansas City Chiefs in a moment when his Salary value on DraftZonestill equaled the cost of a back-up running back, although he was about to receive starter’s carries for the rest of the season. Players can have Salary Value also given that a pitcher is brought up from the minors to start in the big leagues. Until the moment when they manage to prove themselves, you can benefit from the chance to get a starting pitcher at a much lower price than the one you would pay for regular starters. This is why pay attention to injuries and transactions whenever you come across info related to them. You never know what kind of advantage you can get in this way, so stick to our page and follow the injury list.
Researching the Sites is also extremely useful daily sports advice because each site is free to determine the salary costs for individual players and your total team salary cap, as well as the specific rules and rosters. To illustrate the differences, this can result in, let us give you an example. There was a time when DraftZone had Tyreke Evans (Guard, Sacramento Kings) valued at $11,100 with a $60,000 salary cap and 7 roster spots ($8,571 per roster spot). In the same time, SnapDraft had Evans costing $3.36 million with a $27 million cap and 6 roster spots ($4.5 million per roster spot). This lead to the fact that on the one hand, Tyreke Evans came in a lot over the average roster spot allotment on DraftZone, whereas, on the other hand, the NBA rookie of the year was put under the average roster spot cost on the site SnapDraft. As you can probably guess, as a result of these differences, you would be able to get significantly more value per Guard slot if you choose to play Tyreke Evans at SnapDraftrather than DraftZone. However, keep in mind that this should not let you conclude that SnapDraft is better than DraftZone, or that this is the only factor to consider when choosing where to play the specific type of game.
What you also need to research apart from Player Value is your Opponent. Whether you play against an experienced user or a newbie can be of extreme importance. Player’s value on SnapDraft will not matter if your competitors in a league are knowledgeable Daily Drafters. If on the other hand, you compete against some newcomers, then you can calmly select Tyreke on SnapDraft and enjoy the experience. What can help you get an idea about the experience of your opponent, is searching for his username on each of the Daily Fantasy Sites. Remember the experts’ dvice: the more you learn about your competitors, the more chances you will have to win big.
Believe it or not, the weather is also something worth researching. For instance, when it comes to MLB, it is not uncommon for games to end up postponed as a result of bad weather. Also, avoid games that take place in a city with an outdoor stadium if you know that it is likely for a hit movie to roll into town. While it might sound strange to consider, you will often get the fantasy sports advice that The Weather Channel is a valuable source of information, not checking the weather can lead to significant losses in the long term.
Last, but not least, let us give you another advice – you also get a clear idea about the Prize Pool Value. To be financially successful when you play Daily Fantasy Sports, you will need to look for Overlays and an the same time avoid Rake. Keep in mind that Daily Fantasy sites are free to determine how much rake they will take from each contest prize pool. So, keep an eye on who is charging what. When it comes to Prize Pool overlays, let us clarify that we refer to the guaranteed amount of money the site is responsible for paying out no matter how many contestants join. For instance, SportsGeek provided incredible overlays during the last NFL season (prizes of $1,000 on a $50 or less entry for 1st place).
#2. Make use of all welcome bonuses and special offers for newcomers
Welcome bonuses and promotions can be quite an attractive incentive when playing Daily Fantasy Sports. Therefore, we encourage you to make the most out of them having in mind that not a lot of sites will provide you with a lot of reload bonuses later on. Additionally, in the beginning, it is worth striving for gathering as much bonus money as possible. And if you happen to join a site where you can benefit from the opportunity to take part in games that are available only for newcomers, do not miss it! For instance, there are irresistible tournaments you can enter when subscribing to DraftKings.
3. Do not allow yourself to lose the balance of your mind due to outcome of one day or a week
Having in mind how dynamic and diverse the world of Daily Fantasy Sports is, it is pointless to lose your temper if things do not go according to your plan on a specific day. Remember that you can end up losing even if you happen to have a lot of experience as a player. This refers especially to games with Guaranteed Prize Pools. On the other hand, it is not uncommon to have less advanced users winning a series of contests. In spite of this, also, in this case, we would not recommend that you assume that you will always get great days, neither.
4. Make sure you learn how to build lineups according to the type of the contest you would like to enter
Our next segment is about building lineups. As you can probably guess, there is no unified success formula that can help you win whatever game you play. When it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, you will need to invest the time and effort necessary to get an idea how to build good lineups. However, you should adapt to the contest type since there might be significant differences between the separate options. For example, if you take part in cash games, it is wise to avoid stack and to look for high-value plays that are safer. On the other hand, when you enter GPPs, keep in mind that it is worth stacking, as well as increasing your variance. As you see, you have to take the type of contest into consideration before deciding how to build your lineup.
5. If you are a newcomer, it is recommendable to go for 50-50s and H2H
This piece of advice relates to the fact that when you play you invest real money. In the same time, you cannot expect to be able to make extremely good decisions before you have gathered a significant experience. Therefore, focus on 50-50s and H2H to decrease your variance. This will help you minimize the chances of getting discouraged due to a bad losing streak. So, even if you are eager to join some GPPs so that you can compete for big winnings, do not allow yourself to put all of your bankrolls on them.
6. Pay attention to satellites
Even if bigger Daily Fantasy Sites manage to attract more attention, there is a lot you can benefit from also when playing at smaller ones. Satellites are considered to be one of the advantages. If you wonder why, let us clarify that it is not uncommon to have satellites to bigger tournaments that go hand in hand with a significant overlay value. This does not sound bad, does it?
7. Make sure you make the most out of the community environment
People are considered to be a social being. Therefore, it is not surprising that playing can provide you with much more satisfaction if you choose to become a true part of the community. What is more, there is also a practical benefit. When you are more active, you are more likely to master your skills related to building lineups. In this case, we advise you to stay active and play! Community is important for all daily fantasy sports.
8. Do not take daily trends too seriously
When playing Daily Fantasy Sports, you will often come across various interpretations related to the hits of the day. There are much more reliable criteria to base your decision on, such as identifying good value and players with a high ceiling. When it comes to popularity, it only plays some role as far as GPPs are concerned.
9. Have a look at the projections you can find on various sites and build your model
Having in mind that the main goal of any Daily Fantasy Sports roster (no matter NFL, MLB, golf or a competition with race cars) should be to get as many fantasy points per dollar as possible, it is good to look for a various way in which you can increase your chances of identifying value. Although it is important not to rely only on other people’s projections when building your lineup, taking into consideration specific data can help us identify players we may not have considered so far. Therefore, let us share some more of our best advice that could help you create a data model if you are willing to do so.
Whether to create an elaborate projection system, on the data of which you can strictly rely on or to follow the example of players who use a simple projection system and then manually tweak the outputs to optimize their lineups, it is crucial to base your decision on your needs and preferences. After all, nobody knows you better than you, right? What we are going to do now is show you how to build your model. Still, keep in mind that you will need to tweak it in order to get optimal results. Despite this fact, it is good to be able to create one, having in mind that no player is likely to share their own with you.
What you need to do first is to define the inputs your model is about to place a specific value on. To support you in the process of getting clarity about what we mean, let us give you a specific example. One possible correlation to explore would be the amount of RB carries and the fantasy output in the end. Even if one may say that it is obvious, what matters is to demonstrate the process. In addition to this, it is worth investigating what exact value is associated with each carry, isn’t it?
In the beginning, it helps to have access to a reliable source of information which preferably can provide you with the necessary data in the most suitable form. Having in mind the specific example we started a minute ago, we can consider The Football Database quite a nice source. What we need to do, is to copy the data from the site and paste it into an excel sheet. Since the site does not offer total fantasy points, we need to estimate them additionally. However, this is quite easy to be done, so there is no need to worry at all. For example, if A1 is your column for rushing yards and B1 is the one for TDs, then we can use the following formula to see the fantasy points: =A1*0.1+B1*6. The outcome equals what FanDuel will display. The difference is that in our case the points are scored without factoring fumbles.
After having all the raw data necessary, it is time to identify the worth of a carry in fantasy points. Despite the fact that we can undertake various approaches to complete this step, let us concentrate on the simplest one. It revolves around putting the data in a chart and drawing a trend line. To do so, choose “INSERT” and then select the chart type called “SCATTER.” What you will normally see displayed, is a blank chart. This is normal since we have not selected the data, yet. We can do this by right-clicking on the chart and choosing “SELECT DATA”. Once we see the popup window, we need to click “ADD.” In this way, we will be able to insert our X series and Y series. If we follow our example, we will consider rushing attempts to be X axis and fantasy points – our Y axis. At this point, we are one click away from seeing the ready chart. We only need to click “OK”.
Let say that we see the following formula at the top right corner of the chart: y=0.5927x-0.219 and R2=0.9041. This means that to get an idea about the fantasy points we need to estimate the value for 0.5297 times carries minus 0.219. For those of you who might not be familiar with statistics, let us clarify what stands behind the R2 value. R2 is the so-called correlation coefficient, which can take any value between 0 and 1. If R2 is close to one, this means that the data is correlated. For instance, a value of 0.93 would be considered to prove that carries and fantasy points strongly correlate with each other.
While it can be fun to play with numbers, we need to be clear how they can help us get results. Well, it is pretty simple, but still, it is one of the best advice you can get. The only thing we need to do to build a projection model is to insert some carries into the formula so that we can get the fantasy points for the week. Let us assume that DeMarco Murray will get 26 carries. Once we solve y=0.5297(26)-0.219, we see that Y amounts to 13.55. Therefore, it would make sense to project that this specific player will get 13.55 fantasy points as a weekly output. However, make sure you pay attention to the fact that it is worth basing your projections on multiple factors, including also Defense vs. Position (DvP) and Vegas totals. You can even come across consensus rankings from experts at RotoGrinders.
So, in spite of the simplified example, remember that we need to manage to assign the proper weight to several variables, as well as blend them together. While it might be obvious that carries strongly correlate with the fantasy points for RBs, what provides players with a valuable competitive advantage is the capability to identify other less known factors that also contribute to the fantasy points score. For instance, it might help to check the best performing and worst performing rushing defenses and to look for correlations. We hope these examples helped you to understand everything because it is one of the best daily advice on this page.
10. Pay attention to rates and values
Every expert will give you the following advice – Regardless of your expertise as a player, it will not help you make a lot of money if you join high rake H2H games. On the other hand, even with less experience, you might end up succeeding by going for a lower rate (because of the structure or bonuses/rewards) and investing more of your bankroll in tournaments with overlay. This is also one of those best daily advice which will help you triumph.
11. Exploit randomness
Our next advice is to exploit randomness. Even if it sounds counter-intuitive at first, you cannot afford not to benefit from the randomness that goes hand in hand with playing some fantasy sports such as football and baseball. Having in mind that in the most leagues it is a win-lose situation, it is beneficial to strive for a maximum potential advantage over your competitors rather than for predictability. The more predictable the game scoring is (for example NBA), the fewer chances you have of getting a competitive advantage. In comparison to that, the greater short-term volatility that is associated with MLB can provide players with more advantages.
Working with randomness is another best daily advice we can give. When we talk about randomness, it is important to say that it can be considered to be quite predictable. How come? What we mean is the accrual of many random events. For instance, it would be close to impossible to predict the batting average of a baseball player since it varies tremendously from game to game. However, if we assume that we accumulate the most random (at least in MLB) at-bats through the whole season, we might end up with a long-term average. Despite the fact that a specific player might be able to hit .310 or .290, we will at least be clear that it would not be realistic to expect him to hit .500.
Now that we know that randomness can be predictable let us explore how we can make use of it. What we need to do first, is to understand that outlying performances are eventually going to regress toward the mean. Let us use coin-flipping as a metaphor. For example, if I happen to flip heads 8 out of 10 times, I am highly likely to see a lower rate of heads over my next 10 flips.
This is what we mean by saying that randomness is predictable. As long as we are clear about the baseline, we can easily answer two questions. The first one revolves around to where the randomness will likely to take us while the second one refers to the amount of time necessary to get there. If we assume that coin-flipping is a game of skill, it will take a lot of coin flips to get the necessary data so that we could predict the level of expertise of a specific player. Can you imagine it? However, it would still be the wiser thing to do instead of focusing on the baseline.
On the other hand, when it comes to football, research indicates that YPC depends on offensive line play and at the same time it is very random. So, lets suppose that we have a running back who manages to average 3.8 YPC in his first season, and we drop him in fantasy drafts. However, his team happens to add two big upgrades along the line, as a result of which we would be able to get him for a much lower price now in comparison to what we paid due to the popularity he enjoyed initially. If we were clear about the correlations suggested by the research, we would have known that apart from varying a lot, YPC tends to regress toward the league mean of 4.2 YPC (or above it), having in mind that we have deemed the back a talented one. So, we need to keep in mind how relevant it is to search for outliers, as well as targeting or fading them depending on the direction they are likely to regress. When we talk about football, we also need to take into consideration that because there are only 16 games, there is a lot of randomnesses both on individual game and season level. This is why it is quite common to witness even great players perform poorly, or players who are not considered to be so talented exceed your expectations.
In addition to the predictability of randomness, what also counts has to do with the fact that fantasy football is a marketplace. This means that players have the opportunity to turn the mistakes of their opponents into an advantage. The reason for this is that the majority of owners fail to make use of the potential that lies in randomness. If we use again coin-flipping as a metaphor, this would mean that such players do not understand how much chance is associated with the past of each coin-flipper. Even if fantasy football is not 100% about randomness, it is not only about skills, neither. So, it would be a mistake to expect that the running back with 4.65 speed who managed to average 4.9YPC in his rookie year or the small tight end who ended up scoring on 50% of his red zone targets will continue performing the same way.
If you are interested in knowing what makes it so valuable to analyze big-picture stuff such as red zone touchdown rate by size instead of each player’s past success, let us say that figuring out the overarching baseline rate at which we should expect certain stats from particular players can help you in various ways. First, you will be more likely to make use of randomness. Second, you will have more chances of predicting the outcome of even random events. And last, but not least a good fantasy sports advice will tell you that this is how the biggest potential edge over the field can be created.
12. Enjoy the journey
However tempting it might be to imagine oneself winning big, do not take things too seriously. Instead, strive for both choosing wisely and at the same time having fun. Only in this way, you will be able to access the necessary motivation and will that will enable you to research and master your skills regarding constructing lineups.
Some More Useful Clarifications
This last section of the current article is devoted to sharing some more insights that can help you get clarity about Value and Against-the-Grain strategies, skill level and price sensitivity, as well as being Contrarian Based on League Type.
Football fans have to take this as a valuable advice. If we take Odell Beckham Jr. as an example, we need to mention that he managed to perform so amazingly in his rookie year that he ended up being present in all three DraftKings championship lineups in Week 16 (Flea Flicker, Chop Block, and Main Event). What is even more interesting, however, has to do with the levels of usage in each of the lineups: 3.3% in the Main Event, 6.5% in the Chop Block, and 9.3% in the Flea Flicker. Having in mind that the Main Event was associated with a buy-in of $1500 whereas the buy-ins of the Chop Block and the Flea Flicker amounted respectively to $50 and $5, it is easy to come to the conclusion that leagues with higher buy-ins go hand in hand with a stiffer level of competition. This means that despite the presence of multiple –EV players at all levels, it is highly unlikely to come across any John-Kuhn-led lineups in a league that requires a buy-in of $1500.
What we want to have a look at next in our segment has to do with Skill Level and Price Sensitivity. It was Beckham who was considered to be the most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings, and he was also confronted with a quite hot St. Louis Rams defense. Even if he completely torched them, it is still questionable whether he was not the best value at the specific position. What also speaks for this suggestion is the extremely low usage in the Main Event. Having in mind that he led only one out of 30 rosters, we can conclude that most of the money was invested in other players. So, this means that regardless of his performance he is likely to have been overpriced.
While it can be hard to estimate a proper value, it is worth having the following trend in mind. On the one hand, DraftKings users who join contests with lower buy-ins placed more importance on recent performance and expected production rather than on the price itself. In comparison with them, strategic daily fantasy users strive for balancing value with expected ownership in GPPs. On the other hand, when it comes to fantasy players without a lot of experience, they tend not to focus on other variables, but value.
What we would like to concentrate on next has to do with the need to be Contrarian Based on League Type. Taking into consideration that tournaments are quite complicated, you need to think ahead of your competitors and at the same time pay attention to their approach. As far as league types are concerned, it is wise to make a difference between tournaments with low and medium-stakes GPPs and those with higher buy-ins.
What is required to win cheaper tournaments has to do with identifying value. There are multiple reasons for that, and this is one of the best daily advice we can give. First, it is not so easy to predict usage. Second, there are not a lot of users who strive for maximizing overall value so that you can combine low ownership and value. So, when joining cheaper tourneys, it is worth aiming at not only high-value players but also a unique lineup.
This is not necessarily the wisest thing to do, though, particularly when entering high stakes. This has to do with the fact that value players are typically part of multiple lineups, as a result of which it is not easy to get both value and low-ownership at the same time. Therefore, we encourage you to consider going against the grain against better players. This means that due to the high usage of high-value players their value disappears. However, more value gets added to forgoing player value as far as expected production and price are concerned as a result of the high similarity between lineups. To sum up, be price-sensitive in the cases when your opponents are not, otherwise choose to be contrarian. In the case of Beckham, this would mean not rostering him in the cheaper leagues where his usage was 10%, but doing so in the Main Event, given the fact that he was going to have 3.3% usage. As you can see, even when it comes to the very same player, you need to base your decisions and strategies on the way your opponents act.
Even if there are so many other aspects that we could have considered, we hope that you found this article useful. We strive to provide you with the best daily advice (and more specifically for football) so that you can get a clue what to keep in mind and where to start from when playing. We wish you all the best and lots of luck and follow our page for updates!
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