Welcome to this fantasy football research. In this Fantasy football research page, we are aiming to help you learn more about NFL and what kind of basic strategies you can make use of to increase your chances of success. We will also look at some fantasy football research sites. Let us start with our fantasy football research!Enjoy!
Before we dive into specifics, let us start this fantasy football research by sharing that the DFS we have a passion for is NFL. No matter fantastic NBA and PGA might be, there is no doubt that you can play NFL throughout the whole year. In addition to this, no other sport manages to attract nearly as many regular users which results in incredible potential profits. What is even more relevant is that taking part in NFL contests which bring so much fun and all kinds of emotions you can experience while watching how the game is unfolding.
Our purpose is to offer you the best fantasy football research site among all the sites available out there. Therefore, we need to highlight a couple of points. First of all, we encourage you always to keep in mind what the end goal is. In the case of conducting a fantasy football research, the goal should revolve around selecting the players you would like to choose from, when you roster your teams, so that you can gain a competitive advantage. This means that what matters in the selection process is not your perception of the players, but the conclusions based on facts. Even if you can never know in advance how each player is about to perform in a specific contest, research comes in handy as a reliable source for making better decisions in the long term. There are patterns and trends you can take a note of if you choose to invest some energy into that. We will also tell you a bit more on the fantasy football research sites worth your attention. Read on the best fantasy football research site we compiled for you!
Preliminary Vegas Lines
Having a look at the lines of the odd makers in Vegas is a step to consider. After all, these books are a much more promising ally in the process of predicting the outcome of a contest than relying on personal observations. The reason for that has to do with the fact that these odd makers invest high amounts of money, which makes it important for them to strive for predicting the result as closely as possible. The good news is that we can benefit from their expertise by paying attention to two specific aspects. The first one relates to the answers of the questions: who is favored to win and by how much. And the second aspect involves the over/under for the total number of points scored. Let us clarify how these pieces of information can help you.
On the one hand, the spread and over/under can help us get an idea about the type of game that is expected to be played. It is likely to be a pass-heavy game when the scoring is supposed to be high and close. What you are advised to do in such cases is targeting the QB’s and receivers from that game. Also, you might be willing to target the RB of a team if this team is a serious favorite. This has to do with the fact that the team members are likely to run the ball to protect the lead. On the other hand, in the cases when there is a projection about low scoring, it might be better to possibly not choose players from that game, unless they are workhorse RB or defense.
Another way of using the lines is as an inspiration for your projections. Let us suppose that the over/under of the Green Bay-Dallas game amounts to 50 points and at the same time; the Green Bay is also favored to win by four. As a result of some simple calculations, we can project that the score of the Green Bay is likely to be 27 points (3 TD’s and 2 FG’s). Pay attention to the fact that it is not recommendable to round up or down when you are dealing with projections. So, we would not say that the score is projected to be 4 TD’s. The next question to answer relates to the Pack’s 3 TD’s. If we assume that 65% of all Packer TD’s are associated with Aaron Rodgers, this would mean that according to the Vegas lines his score is projected to be 2.05 TD’s. Following the same logic, we can expect that the score of Eddie Lacy who accounts for 25% of the Packer TD’s is likely to be .75 TD’s. Remember, we do not to round up or down. The fractional values can play a significant role.
Other values you can project thanks to the Vegas lines include total yards for a team/player, as well as total receptions for a receiver. And based on the math we used for TD’s, you are capable of figuring out an appropriate baseline value, too.
Our Fantasy football research continues with a look at the injury reports. In comparison to sports, such as NBA matches, there are ways in which you can identify in advance the NFL players who are likely to perform well. In spite of the fact that you will still have to make some game-time decisions, you can take the time before introducing necessary changes. When it comes to injury reports as a priceless source of information on which you can base your choices, you need to focus on the following main points:
1. Will the player play, at all?
Unless a player takes part in a game, he does not have any value. This is pretty clear, right? However, there is more to it than what meets the eye. Moreover, in this case, the second question that arises has to do with the potential replacement if a player does not join a contest. For instance, it is sometimes valuable to roster backup RB’s who are just getting the start.
2. What kind of impact is the injury likely to have on the performance of the player?
This aspect is critical because a player will not have DFS value unless he is likely to be able to perform well despite a particular injury. If this is not the case, it might be wiser to choose another player instead of your first option. For example, Golden Tate can be a target given the fact that Calvin Johnson is injured. So, make sure you think twice before rostering an injured player.
3. What kind of play can you expect from the replacement player?
It is important to realize that there are no guarantees, that the backup which is about to have the chance to play is going to perform good enough, so that you can consider your investment in him worthy. For instance, even if a backup RB for the Raiders costs you only half as much as you would have to pay regularly for a starting RB in a game against the Seahawks, this would not matter since he is not likely to get enough points. On the other hand, it would be beneficial for you to roster him to play against a porous run D.
Another evaluation you might be willing to make revolves around injuries in the opposing, as well as their impact. Let us assume that the top team CB is not about to join a game. In this case, we can conclude that this will be beneficial for the WR1 of the other team. On the other hand, whenever the backup QB for a team is playing, it is critical for the opposing defense to be a good team to target.
Snaps, Targets And Touches
In addition to what we shared about the Vegas lines and the injury reports, it is worth taking into consideration how much a player plays, when they play, and how they are utilized in a game. To illustrate what we mean, let us give you an example.
You need to decide which of two players to roster as a WR in your team. The stats of player A include 10 targets, 4 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD. And the ones of player B are 4 targets, 4 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD. Despite the same fantasy points, player A has targeted 2.5 times more than Player B. The more targets there are, the more opportunities you can expect regarding getting fantasy points scored.
What is more, do not forget to take a look at the red zone usage. TD’s are the most important thing as far as the world of DFS is concerned. Therefore, we need to focus on players who are likely to be getting the ball inside the 20-yard line where most of the TD’s come from.
Last, but not least, we also encourage you to check are the usage trends. They reveal, for example, whether a player has managed to get more or fewer snaps recently in comparison with the plays earlier in the season. Having in mind that nothing is a coincidence, you can benefit from this information when you roster your teams.
As we mentioned in the Vegas line section, knowing how teams match up can make a difference. For instance, even if a team is the 8th best defense in total yards allowed, this may be a result of them getting gashed by the run game and controlling the clock. So, what we want to be clear about is how teams do against the run and the pass, as well as the target players in matchups who favor them. Furthermore, it is important to know how teams defend particular positional matchups. If a team is quite bad against the pass but in the same time it performs well against TE’s, it might be wise for us not to target the starting TE for that particular team. Another example would be to check a team which is #1 against WR1 but #24 against WR2. In this case, we need to keep in mind that they are likely to have a shutdown corner blanketing the WR1 and teams are targeting the other side.
Additional Tips For Basing Research
Here are more useful advices for the football punters to read.
1. Do not underestimate the impact that weather can have on the game
Wind is considered to be one of the most relevant factors when it comes to football games. This has to do with the fact that it severely influences throwing (and kicking) the football. In addition to the wind, rain can also play a role in terms of the passing game. However, keep in mind that it is not as big as people usually assume.
2. Check how highly owned players are likely to be
There are cases in which you need to roster a player. You are likely to roster Odell Beckham if he is about to play against the most poorly performing CB in the league. On the other hand, you might need additional criteria to base your decision on if you have to choose between players who are close to one another. And this is when identifying the one who is expected to be lower-owned might determine if you will win a GPP or whether you will just make the money.
3. Benefit from the advice of experts
Even if you consider yourself to be one of the best GPP players, and you are eager to rely on your own analysis, you might still find it helpful to inform yourself about other people’s opinions. This does not mean that they will make the decision for you. However, doing so can make it easier for you to limit the options you would like to choose between.
Building The Lineups
The next step to take once you are done with the fantasy football research relates to building those lineups. You can take various approaches based on the amount of lineup(s) you will be entering. The playing around, as well as the amount of risk you can take an increase when you enter more and more lineups. However, we advise you to base your decision on your research. It is inevitable that each of us has those weeks when the outcomes are not aligned with our projections. However tempted we might feel in those times to change our strategy, it is critical to remember that keeping the same approach over a longer period is what can lead you to profits in NFL.
Our fantasy football research is coming to its conclusion. As you saw, there are multiple advantages that go hand in hand with taking the time and investing the necessary amount of energy to make sure your decisions about NFL lineups are based on reasonable facts. We encourage you to benefit from the information; you can find on fantasy football research sites. We hope that the fantasy football research we just shared with you has helped you move a step closer to being successful when taking part in NFL contest in DFS. We will continue updating our information, because we want to be the best fantasy football research site for all players searching for a reliable source of information.
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